Over the last months, Candid employees have been asked repeatedly, “How many nonprofits are going to go out of business?” Over the last two weeks, Carol Brouwer and Anna Koob led an effort to analyze the financial future of a set of 315,698 U.S.-based nonprofits by considering 20 possible scenarios. In summary, these scenarios reveal a range of contradictions. On the one hand, they demonstrate the strength of the nonprofit sector. The majority of nonprofit organizations are positioned to weather this storm. And, indeed, some degree of turnover is healthy to maintain a vibrant sector. But the people served by shuttered nonprofits face practical consequences that cannot be abstracted away.